Israeli Raid Complicates U.S.'s Mideast Strategy

story by Wall Street Journal
written by Gerald F. Seib

U.S. President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were to meet at the White House Tuesday for what officials from both countries hoped would be a kind of public kiss-and-make-up session.

In a few violent minutes at sea Monday, that all went out the window. The Israeli operation that unexpectedly turned violent now will back both leaders into corners they had hoped to vacate. The Obama-Netanyahu relationship, which already had a kind of soap-opera quality to it, is under new strain. The American dream of easing Arab anxieties over the Palestinian question so all can focus on the threat from Iran has faded just a bit more.

All this began unfolding before the sun had even risen over Mr. Obama's Chicago home, where he was spending the Memorial Day weekend. Israeli commandos stormed a convoy of ships headed for the Gaza Strip to deliver humanitarian supplies to Palestinians there in defiance of an Israeli naval blockade of Hamas-run Gaza.

The humanitarian flotilla had been warned repeatedly not to try to run the blockade. It ignored the warnings. Mr. Netanyahu's government ordered Israeli soldiers to board the ships. Shots were fired. At least 10 activists died and a similar number of Israelis were wounded..

Within hours, the Netanyahu-Obama White House meeting was canceled so the Israeli leader could return home. Senior White House aides said Mr. Netanyahu, not the Americans, called off the visit to deal with the crisis.

Either way, the chance to put a better face on the relationship between the leaders evaporated. From the first weeks of the Obama administration, the two men have been famously feuding over the president's demand that Israel stop all building in East Jerusalem to smooth the way for peace talks with Palestinians.

In reality, the relationship between the two men hasn't been quite as bad as often suggested. "I would describe it as actually very solid, very productive," said one senior Obama administration official over the weekend, before news of the raid at sea. "It is quite at odds with the popular portrayal."

Their feuding actually has had an element of theatrics—with the theatrics suiting both men's interests. President Obama's strategy has been as much about Iran, his paramount security concern, as Israel or the Palestinians. He calculated at the outset of his term that he needed to get tough with Mr. Netanyahu to push him into peace talks with the Palestinians.

Forcing talks, Mr. Obama figured, was crucial to his dream of knitting together a kind of loose American-Arab-Israeli front to stand up to Iran and its nuclear program. Without movement on the Palestinian question to ease Arab public opinion, the president calculated, moderate Arab leaders would be less willing to cooperate on Iran.

Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas is so weak he needs all the help he can get. If that meant getting tough with Mr. Netanyahu, it was a price worth paying.

From Mr. Netanyahu's point of view, standing up to a new, young American president trying to enhance American relations with the Arab and Islamic worlds wasn't all bad either. Doubts about Mr. Obama (whose approval in Israel has plunged) only strengthened Mr. Netanyahu's hand in standing up to him.

But for both men, this feuding had reached the point of diminishing returns, and they've been trying to turn things around. Israel apologized for embarrassing Vice President Joe Biden by announcing more East Jerusalem construction just as Mr. Biden was visiting.

The Obama administration has been talking up security ties to Israel. Two weeks ago, the president met with 37 Jewish Democrats in Congress and told them that he had spent more time one-on-one with Mr. Netanyahu than any other world leader, and that ties were solid.

Now, the seaborne raid and its tragic outcome. Smiling Obama-Netanyahu pictures from the Oval Office will be supplanted by international pressure on the White House to condemn Israel.

Worse for the administration, this twist complicates its Iran strategy. The United Nations Security Council has been moving toward a resolution imposing new economic sanctions on Iran, but that's now in danger of being slowed or sidetracked by the inevitable clamoring to condemn Israel.

The raid particularly complicates dealing with Turkey. The Turks once were Israel's best friend in the Islamic world. They've been drifting away, though, and essentially sponsored the Palestinian relief flotilla that Israeli forces confronted Monday.

As it happens, Turkey also occupies one of the rotating seats on the Security Council right now, and has been maneuvering to help Iran escape more economic sanctions. The U.S. is trying to dissuade the Turks from giving aid and comfort to Iran. Monday's tragedy at sea won't make those conversations with Turkey any easier, proving anew that the law of unintended consequences is always in effect in the Middle East.