Islamists expected to fare poorly in Egypt election

story and photo by Reuters

Victory is assured for Egypt's ruling party in Sunday's parliamentary election, which is expected to shunt the opposition Muslim Brotherhood further to the margins of mainstream politics.

The Brotherhood is targeting 30 percent of the lower house where it won a fifth of seats in 2005 -- its best result -- but analysts say the government wants to squeeze its most vocal critic out of parliament before a presidential vote in 2011.

The election in which 508 seats are at stake, including for the first time 64 reserved for women, may offer a foretaste of how the government conducts the presidential poll.

President Hosni Mubarak, 82, has not said whether he will seek to extend his 29-year tenure. After he had gall-bladder surgery in March, speculation grew that he might step down.

If he does so, many Egyptians see a likely successor in his 46-year-old son Gamal, the ruling National Democratic Party's (NDP) policy chief. Gamal's allies include business leaders seeking further economic liberalization, resisted by the NDP's statist old guard.

Analysts say the next president will be an NDP stalwart who would preserve a peace treaty with Israel and close ties with Washington that have ensured billions of dollars in U.S. aid.

With the outcome of Sunday's vote in little doubt, the authorities may face a sterner challenge from a workforce frustrated with low pay and food inflation now at 22 percent. Several union protests have turned violent in recent years.

Online dissent has also grown, highlighting alleged abuses by security forces and publicizing calls for constitutional reform by Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, without gelling into a coherent opposition movement.

"I can't change anything, because every time a project for change comes out, we all watch it desperately fail. Those who talk about change left the country and are sitting comfortably abroad," said Ghadeer, a 22-year-old arts graduate who only gave her first name.

The NDP says the electorate hands it crushing majorities because it is the natural party of government and voters approve policies which brought several years of strong economic growth.

"The party also has financial abilities that allow it to provide the services it promises, unlike the other parties," said a ruling party candidate in Cairo, Abdel Ghani Gamal.

TELEVISIONS, BLANKETS AND CASH

Critics say the NDP hogs the media, hands out gifts and pressures voters at polling stations.

State-owned newspaper Al Ahram listed methods voters use to get ink off fingers, such as rubbing them with orange peel, baking powder or herbs, so that they can cast multiple ballots.

A retired army colonel who asked not to be named said NDP campaigners in Cairo had been buying votes with television sets, blankets, 500 pounds ($87) in cash or even offers of state jobs.

"There was more popular trust in the 2005 election because it was supervised by judges. Now there is mistrust," said Hafez Abou Saeda of the Egyptian Organization of Human Rights. "There is more control of media. Fifteen channels have been shut down."

The government has rebuffed a call by Washington for international election monitors as unwelcome interference.

It says the voting will be free and fair, and blames sporadic pre-election violence on rivalry between candidates and clan loyalties. Clashes are common in Egyptian elections.

The NDP and the Brotherhood have swapped accusations of intimidation and violence, said to have included kidnappings and fights between rival groups using machetes, chains and knives.
Four people have already been killed and 30 wounded in electoral violence, according to the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights. Fourteen people were killed during the 2005 poll.

An Alexandria court sentenced 12 Brotherhood supporters to two years in prison on Thursday for using Islamist campaign slogans and the NDP has called on the public prosecutor to block Brotherhood candidates from running as independents.

The NDP is fielding far more candidates than there are seats available in an effort to crowd out the Brotherhood.

The Islamist movement skirts a ban on religious parties by running candidates as independents and has carved out a broad grass-roots following by offering health and social services.

Despite its substantial presence, it had scant influence on legislation during parliament's last five-year term and has made no gains in municipal or upper house elections since 2005.

Brotherhood leaders say it would be perilous to push it out of mainstream politics as this would play into the hands of more radical Islamists bent on overthrowing the government by force.