Iran Sanctions

Commentary by Dr. Raymond Tanter http://www.iranpolicy.org/

Although bilateral and multilateral sanctions on the Iranian regime have been tried in the past and failed to stop the Islamic Republic in its quest for the bomb, they are becoming the default option. As Washington’s efforts to engage Tehran falter and threats of military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites do not seem credible, the international community plays its sanctions card along with planned mid-November multilateral negotiations between Tehran and Permanent Five Members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, UK, and the USA) plus Germany.

Ever since my service in the Reagan-Bush White House in the 1980s, I have followed alternating swings between engagement and sanctions in American policy. On top of five main rounds of U.S. sanctions, the UN Security Council has imposed four rounds of sanctions. And there have been other bilateral (e.g., Australia, Canada, and Japan) as well as multilateral (European Union) sanctions against Iran.

Although a participant in UN sanctions against Iran, China is the only major world economic power with significant investments in the energy sector of Iran. But China’s banks and industries are increasingly concerned about the impact of the U.S. Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act of 2010. This latest round of American sanctions against Iran could have an impact on whether the China National Petroleum Corporation and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation reconsider their investments in Iran. A decline in their investments could make it difficult for Iran to meet its needs for refined petroleum products.

Gasoline is important among refined petroleum products because of subsidies by the Islamic Republic. In times of gasoline scarcity, Tehran faces a difficult decision between reducing subsidies to raise prices and depress demand or keeping scarce gasoline cheap and allowing pumps to run dry. Either choice is politically perilous. During summer 2007, Tehran instituted limits on the amount of subsidized gasoline for purchase, resulting in riots at gas stations across the country. A substantial disruption in supplies of domestic or imported gasoline could precipitate additional riots and reinvigorate Iranian dissidents.

Regarding the Iranian opposition, removal of the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq (MEK) from the EU list of terrorist organizations in January 2009 and a July 2010 decision by an American court ordering the State Department to reconsider its process of designating the MEK as a terrorist organization are facilitating a regime change option to complement sanctions and threat to take military action against Iran.

Elimination of the terrorist tag on organizations like the MEK would free it to give additional assistance to Iranian expatriates who are assisting the Iranian street to bring down the Iranian regime; rather than relying on external military force as happened when Washington changed the regime in Baghdad in 2003, there should be an Iranian solution to the problem of the Iranian threat. Otherwise, the international community may have to decide between accepting an Iranian nuclear bomb and bombing Iran.

Professor Raymond Tanter is author of President Obama and Iran: Engagement, Isolation, Regime Change, 2010. Dr. Raymond Tanter, is the President of Iran Policy Committee http://www.iranpolicy.org/

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Dr Tanter is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and is an adjunct professor of Political Science at Georgetown University. Dr. Tanter serves as an adjunct scholar at The Washington Institute, researching U.S. policy options toward Iran. From 1981 to 1982, Dr. Tanter served on the National Security Council staff (White House) and was personal representative of the secretary of defense to the 1983-1984 arms control talks held in Madrid, Helsinki, Stockholm, and Vienna. Dr. Tanter has taught at Northwestern, Stanford, University of Michigan, and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He has served as a fellow at both the Hoover Institution and the Woodrow Wilson International Center. As scholar-in-residence at the American Embassy in Tokyo, Dr. Tanter lectured on petroleum interruption scenarios, with special reference to the Middle East. At Georgetown, he teaches courses on the Arab-Israeli conflict, international security affairs, and ballistic missile defense. He was scholar-in-residence at the Middle East Institute during fall 2001. Professor Raymond Tanter is author of President Obama and Iran: Engagement, Isolation, Regime Change, 2010. Dr. Tanter is a 'Featured Contributing Blogger' at The Review Middle East http://www.thereviewme.com/.