Bush issues Oil-Gas drilling permits in Utah

Drilling in Utah
One last gift to the oil and gas industry

Thursday, November 13, 2008; Page A22 Washington Post

USING THE WANING days of power to ram through rules and regulations to burnish a legacy or preempt a successor is a time-honored tradition of outgoing administrations. That President Bush's White House is no exception was demonstrated by last week's announcement by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) that it would authorize the sale of oil and gas leases on 360,000 acres of public land in Utah. Many of the tracts are disturbingly close to national parks and some of the nation's most beautiful vistas.

The 241 parcels are clustered around or near Dinosaur National Monument, Arches National Park and Canyonlands National Park and will be auctioned on Dec. 19. While energy exploration is not prohibited on lands under the jurisdiction of the BLM, a mix of public pressure and political considerations pushed previous administrations to resist industrial development around national parks. In another departure from past practice, the National Park Service, which usually is given up to three months to comment on proposed sales of leases near parks, was not consulted.

According to published reports, the agency found out about the sale from an environmental group. A request before the sale announcement to pull the parcels near parks until further study of drilling's impact on wildlife, air and water was initially rejected. Since then, the BLM and the National Park Service have come to an agreement that allows the Park Service to conduct a parcel-by-parcel review of the tracts in question that will be completed by Nov. 24. What happens after that is up in the air.

The lands put up for leasing were proposed by the oil and gas industry. The BLM then conducted a series of environmental reviews under various laws, including the Endangered Species Act, the National Environmental Policy Act and the National Historic Preservation Act. That the National Park Service was cut out of the consultation loop only amplifies the administration's reputation for holding the interests of industry above all others. The 30-day "public protest period" ends Dec. 4. If the leases are sold and handed over before Jan. 20, the administration of President-elect Barack Obama will have trouble reversing them.

The United States has an abiding appetite for fossil fuels -- a dangerous affliction that will continue until alternative energy sources can be exploited on a much larger scale. For some time to come, it will be imperative that the country increase domestic oil production to reduce its dependence on imports. That will mean balancing environmental concerns. After all, oil production in Venezuela, Nigeria and Russia also causes environmental damage. That doesn't mean, however, that important environmental factors should be given short shrift or that the views of potentially critical players ought to be ignored. That is what the Bush administration has done in the case of the Utah leases.

U.S. Moves Ahead on Oil, Gas Leases on Public Land
Decision Could Pose Problem for Obama

By Juliet Eilperin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, November 29, 2008; Page A01


A decision by federal officials this week to press ahead with a controversial sale of oil and gas leases in eastern Utah is stoking the debate over how to balance the nation's needs for fossil fuels against concerns over the environmental impact on iconic national parks and other sensitive areas.

The Bush administration, which has sought to reduce American dependence on imports to meet the continuing demand for oil and gas, has aggressively pushed to open up energy exploration across broad swaths of the West, off both coasts, and in Alaska. But those initiatives regularly stir opposition from both environmentalists and advocates of faster development of alternative energy sources such as wind and solar power.

Over the last four fiscal years, a Washington Post analysis of Bureau of Land Management records shows, the government has dramatically accelerated the pace of awarding oil and gas drilling permits on federal land. The total for the period is nearly triple the number issued in the corresponding years under former President Clinton, and the number of new wells sunk on federal land is more than double Clinton's record over the comparable period.

In the latest skirmish, the bureau announced Tuesday that it will proceed with most of a proposed sale of oil and gas leases on nearly 500 square miles of public land in eastern Utah, which had sparked protests from environmental advocates and National Park Service officials. Opponents fear the drilling activity will damage air quality in several nearby popular national parks.

The lease sales, due to take place next month, could pose a challenge for the incoming Obama administration, which will have to decide shortly after taking office whether to honor the contracts, seek to undo the leases or pay millions in taxpayer dollars to buy them back.
White House spokesman Tony Fratto said the administration was responding to two realities: the fact that the United States will "be using oil as an energy source for the foreseeable future, the next 50 years, and we want to reduce our dependence on foreign oil because it's a security and economic threat." "If we're going to do that, we're going to explore where we think the oil is going to be," he said. "It's possible to drill in environmentally sensitive areas in safe ways."

Energy industry experts said the government is providing access to a place that Richard Ranger, a senior policy adviser to the American Petroleum Institute, called "an area of growing promise." Ranger noted that for the past few years the Bureau of Land Management office in Vernal, Utah, has been "one of the five or six most active BLM offices in terms of issuing drilling permits."

Advances in a process called hydraulic fracturing have allowed companies to extract oil and natural gas from areas that were inaccessible in the past. Partly as a result, 40 percent of U.S. gas consumption last year came from wells drilled in the past four to five years.

"It was a combination of economics and better technology so we could go after resources in the West," said Kathleen Sgamma, director of government affairs for the Independent Petroleum Association of Mountain States.

The rise in energy prices and demand during Bush's tenure has spurred development in both the West and East: In 2007, domestic oil production slightly increased for the first time in years.
Places such as Utah offer huge potential for energy producers, but development there has triggered controversy because of its proximity to some of the nation's most scenic parks and natural monuments. After Park Service officials on Monday identified 93 proposed auction parcels where leasing could jeopardize "air quality, water resources and natural sound," BLM officials announced late the next day that they would defer action on two dozen of those parcels as well as portions of four more, while pressing ahead with more than 210 parcels encompassing 313,000 acres.

Environmental activists said oil and gas drilling on the 210 remaining parcels could jeopardize air quality and other natural features of some of the country's most treasured national parks, such as Arches, Canyonlands and Capitol Reef, along with the Grand Staircase-Escalante and Dinosaur national monuments. "The Bush administration started its energy policy in back rooms with oil lobbyists, and it's fitting that's how they want to end it," said Bobby McEnaney, a public lands expert at the Natural Resources Defense Council, an advocacy group. "They're destroying the whole process that is designed to protect these lands. Once you get rid of wilderness, you can't get it back."

David Garbett, a staff attorney for the Southern Utah Wilderness Alliance, said that in the last month, the administration also finalized six "resource management plans" that will allow the bureau to auction off other parts of these areas in the future.

"These plans will govern management of these lands for likely the next 20 years, and these plans have made areas like this available for leasing," Garbett said. "It's a final attempt by the administration to set in stone guidance for these lands for the long term, in a way that will not protect resources."

In a statement Tuesday, the bureau's Utah state director, Selma Sierra, said her agency and the Park Service had engaged in a "constructive dialog" that "has resulted in a positive outcome" on how best to treat public lands in that state. "This is important for two sister agencies with environmental stewardship missions."

Mike Snyder, regional director for the Park Service's Intermountain Region, who negotiated with Sierra over the lease plan, said he is pleased with the decision to defer lease agreements on some parcels but still has concerns about how drilling will affect national parks.

"It's just the beginning," Snyder said in an interview Wednesday. "The resource management plans have many, many more acres that could be leased in the future."

Snyder said he had hoped that the bureau would conduct an analysis of how drilling would affect air quality in Arches, Canyonlands and other national parks that are at risk of not meeting federal ozone pollution standards, but that that will not happen. He said the 24 parcels where the BLM deferred leasing are "the really sensitive, extraordinary cases" and that the bureau will consult with the Park Service on spelling out protections in some of the parcels being auctioned off next month.

Karen Hevel-Mingo, program manager for the Southwest regional office of the National Parks Conservation Association, said the fact that the BLM has agreed only to a deferral on the two dozen leases means they could still end up on the auction block in March, when the next sale is slated to take place.

"There is concern those parcels are still available for future oil and gas development," she said.
But Sgamma said the administration spent seven years consulting with a range of interests before adopting the resource management plans that allow for drilling: "There were a lot of things industry was interested in that finally now are available for leasing."

The Obama administration could seek to reverse some of the leases, but that could prove costly. Environmentalists plan to challenge the choice of several parcels over air quality concerns, and technically the bureau has 60 days after a lease sale to determine whether it has been "improperly issued" and refund the money.

But Tim Spisak, division chief for fluid minerals for the bureau, said that for the agency to do so, "they've got to have a reason; it's not just like, somebody just thinks differently." That the government just issued the six new resource management plans, he added, makes it "less likely" that the BLM could say it has found new information that would terminate the leases.

Alternatively, the federal government could buy back the leases if the companies that won them were willing to sell. But Sgamma warned that "it would be very expensive to buy that out," adding: "Once you get a lease out, it's a contract, and you can't renege on that contract."

Database editor Sarah Cohen contributed to this report.

President-Elect Barack Obama outlines 'Economic Recovery Plan'

President-Elect Barack Obama's Economic Team (AP Photo)

Before we read the first Presidential action statement by President-Elect Barack Obama regarding his two-year stimulus plan, let's look where we are today and why our situation is fundamentally so bleak.

Hilary Clinton and John McCain were the overwhelming favorites to lead their respective parties prior to the 2008 Primary season(s). However, it was Senator Barack Obama that the previous silent Americans selected to handle its' invisible problems. During the consistent downwards turn of personal and family economics, most Americans were unrecognized, our protests stifled, and our constitutional rights to assemble were re-defined by Corporations, Government, and World Order Organizations with special interests owning the ears of decision-makers and legislaters. Major Corporate News mediums (taken over by Wall Street lobbiest and deregulated by Bill Clinton in the 90's) dictating their "moraled authority" to 'shut the masses up'. Senator Barack Obama not only was a Democratic candidate but Obama also became 'The One' to voice our most inward passions to change the assaught on our constitutional freedom of speech, blatant disrespect for the middle and lower class' rights for a livable wage, and Americans right to peaceably assemble/protest.

There is a book you should read titled, "The Tyranny of Oil" http://www.tyrannyofoil.com/ by Antonia Juhasz. Juhasz previously authored the highly acclaimed best seller "The Bush Agenda" a few years ago. Juhasz's new book "The Tyranny of Oil" clearly explains what President-Elect Barack Obama referred to often, during his campaign for President, that the lobbiest and special interest groups are ruining our country. In States where the Oil industry is prevalent -- notably California, Indiana, Alaska, New Jersey, and Texas -- politicians from both the Republican and Democrat parties receive millions of dollars from Big Oil companies for their campaigns. Big Oil would then expect -- and more than likely receive -- political favors benefitial to Big Oil's operation.

Secondly, if a proposition is on the ballot demanding that Big Oil pay their fair share in taxes, or clean up our air, the Big Oil companies will use their profits -- not for cleaning their cancer causing or respitory-damaging emissions -- but to out-spend concerned citizens' propositions that would keep Oil Companies from riping off Americans' pocketbooks, or demanding a more healthy community whom live near Big Oils refineraries.

Oil companies consistently influence politicians in office to gain legislative and financial favors spending billions annually lobbying to keep their Oil industry alive and very well. Billions more are invested in research organizations by Big Oil to provide favorable studies and statistics for the media, public, and intellectual communities, which support Big Oil's point of view. You see the billions of dollars invested in television and other forms of media to paint a perfect image of a green, recyclable, and investor of the many clear air fuels.

In actuality Big Oil spends more money promoting a clean environment than it spends investing into re-building its' health threatening emissions at their refineries to benefit employees and people living in nearby residential communities. Building newer and safer refineries or building new refineries period (or more gas stations) is totally out the question for the sake of keeping Americans short of supply to increase the price during a natural disaster. Investing and actually building an infrastructure for wind, solar, and other safer energy is simply not their business, which is why they are in the back rooms with Bush to lease land in Utah to drill for more oil. As much as Big Oil companies advertising on billboards, television, radio, periodicals about use less energy and talking about the clean green projects, you would think they were leasing land in the plains and canyons to build wind farms and solar panels to clean up or air, helping out with our global warming problem. Not! Little Oil money goes into making Big Oil's refineries safer for their employeees or surrounding communities, and little monies are invested into cleaner, greener technologies.

Guess which politician is the number one benefactor of Political contributions from Big Oil in all of the United States? Former Governor of Texas and President of the United States George W. Bush. And what we seen over the past eight years is Bush's strong allegience to the Oil Companies, not being loyal to the American people -- inclusive of the millions of Americans that voted GW Bush into office. Iraq was no threat to us but Iraq has over twenty trillion barrels of un-touched oil under their soil that American Big Oil corporations are "interested" in. If Big Oil is interested, then George W. Bush is also interested. Bush recently signed Executive order 13211, directing all US Government Agencies to assess whether regulation would have" any adverse effects on energy supply, distribution, or use." API (American Petroleum Institution) proposed that Executive order 13211 apply to "any substantive action by any agency that promulgates or is expected to lead to the promulgation of a rule, regulation or policy, including, but not limited to, notice of inquiry, advance notices of proposed rule-making, notices of proposed rule-making, and guidance documents." As you can see, if API is concerned, then George Bush is concerned.

Big Oil comes first, not the grueling effects (including homicide) of Corporation's massive lay-offs, re-structuring, outsourcing, union busting, predatory lending, lowered salaries, and not to mention, the Bush Administration helping hurricane victims get back on their feet, even if the cause of a resulting flood was the fault of the US Government -- as was the case when a disfunctional levees broke in New Orleans. The actions of the Bush/Cheney administration speak louder than their verbal spin. Follow the money people.

On the other foot, President-Elect Barack Obama's contributions supporting the "Obama for America" campaign came directly from the American people with an average of roughly eighty dollars per contributor, including a few hundred from yours truly. This was the first time in my young life that I have ever contributed to any political campaign, or should I say a movement to get the country back in the hands of the American people. I trust that a President Obama will do so. One of the items on "our" agenda is getting my fellow Americans back to work with livable wages. The below article outlines Obama's two year economic recovery plan. In the coming days Obama will select an all-star Economic and Budget team. I trust in Obama's ability to comprehend all of the economic advice -- and manage their known egos -- into a logical economic plan beneficial to the American people, first and foremost.

President-Elect Barack Obama at Manny's Deli in Chicago
(photo by Scott Olson/Getty images)

Obama: 'Millions of jobs' in danger next year warns, worst may be yet to come

ap/reuters/msnbc.com
Updated: 9:45 a.m. ET Nov 22, 2008

WASHINGTON - U.S. President-elect Barack Obama said on Saturday that he was crafting an aggressive, two-year stimulus plan to revive the troubled economy, warning that swift action was needed to prevent a deep slump and a spiral of falling prices.

"If we don't act swiftly and boldly, most experts now believe that we could lose millions of jobs next year," Obama said in prepared remarks for the weekly Democratic radio and video address.

"We now risk falling into a deflationary spiral that could increase our massive debt even further," he said.

A day after U.S. stock markets rallied on his apparent choice of Timothy Geithner as Treasury secretary, Obama gave a bleak assessment of the economy in his most detailed comments on the subject since winning the Nov. 4 election.

Obama in October called for a $175 billion stimulus measure, but his comments in the radio address on Saturday signaled he was prepared to push for a much larger package, though he did not give a price-tag.

The economic recovery plan being developed by his staff aims to create 2.5 million jobs by January 2011, and he wants to get it through Congress quickly and sign it soon after taking office.

He called the plan "big enough to meet the challenges we face" and said that it will jump-start job creation but also "lay the foundation for a strong and growing economy."

The proposal for a two-year stimulus plan further indicated a sizable effort. Most such plans are aimed at covering a one-year period.

The number of Americans on the unemployment rolls surged to the highest in 16 years, up more than 540,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

'Ignored for far too long' Obama said his plan would rebuild roads and bridges and modernize schools while developing alternative energy sources and more efficient cars.

"These aren't just steps to pull ourselves out of this immediate crisis; these are the long-term investments in our economic future that have been ignored for far too long," Obama said.

A trio of crises — housing, credit and financial — have badly damaged the economy, and financial analysts have projected the country's economic hardships will continue through much of 2009.

Obama acknowledged Saturday that evidence is growing the country is "facing an economic crisis of historic proportions." He noted turmoil on Wall Street, a decrease in new home purchases, growing jobless claims and the menacing problem of deflation.

He said he was pleased Congress passed an extension of unemployment benefits this week, but added, "We must do more to put people back to work and get our economy moving again."

He cautioned, "There are no quick or easy fixes to this crisis, which has been many years in the making, and it's likely to get worse before it gets better." But Obama said Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, "is our chance to begin anew."

Obama said getting congressional approval for his broad economic plan will not be easy.

"I will need and seek support from Republicans and Democrats, and I'll be welcome to ideas and suggestions from both sides of the aisle," he said. "But what is not negotiable is the need for immediate action."

Across the country, Americans "are lying awake at night wondering if next week's paycheck will cover next month's bills," people are showing up at work to clear out their desks and retirees are watching their life savings disappear, Obama said.

In this country's darkest hours, the American people have risen above their divisions to solve their problems, he said. "We have acted boldly, bravely, and above all, together," Obama said. "That is the chance our new beginning now offers us, and that is the challenge we must rise to in the days to come. It is time to act. As the next president of the United States, I will."

President-Elect Barack Obama resigns as Illinois Senator

Above picture from Barackobama.com

Today, President-elect Barack Obama resigned his Senate seat and he sent the thank-you letter below to newspapers across Illinois:

Obama's Letter to the People of Illinois
November 16, 2008
BY PRESIDENT-ELECT BARACK OBAMA

Today, I am ending one journey to begin another. After serving the people of Illinois in the United States Senate -- one of the highest honors and privileges of my life -- I am stepping down as senator to prepare for the responsibilities I will assume as our nation's next president. But I will never forget, and will forever be grateful, to the men and women of this great state who made my life in public service possible.

More than two decades ago, I arrived in Illinois as a young man eager to do my part in building a better America. On the South Side of Chicago, I worked with families who had lost jobs and lost hope when the local steel plant closed. It wasn't easy, but we slowly rebuilt those neighborhoods one block at a time, and in the process I received the best education I ever had. It's an education that led me to organize a voter registration project in Chicago, stand up for the rights of Illinois families as an attorney and eventually run for the Illinois state Senate.

It was in Springfield, in the heartland of America, where I saw all that is America converge -- farmers and teachers, businessmen and laborers, all of them with a story to tell, all of them seeking a seat at the table, all of them clamoring to be heard. It was there that I learned to disagree without being disagreeable; to seek compromise while holding fast to those principles that can never be compromised, and to always assume the best in people instead of the worst. Later, when I made the decision to run for the United States Senate, the core decency and generosity of the American people is exactly what I saw as I traveled across our great state -- from Chicago to Cairo; from Decatur to Quincy.

I still remember the young woman in East St. Louis who had the grades, the drive and the will but not the money to go to college. I remember the young men and women I met at VFW halls across the state who serve our nation bravely in Iraq and Afghanistan. And I will never forget the workers in Galesburg who faced the closing of a plant they had given their lives to, who wondered how they would provide health care to their sick children with no job and little savings.

Stories like these are why I came to Illinois all those years ago, and they will stay with me when I go to the White House in January. The challenges we face as a nation are now more numerous and difficult than when I first arrived in Chicago, but I have no doubt that we can meet them. For throughout my years in Illinois, I have heard hope as often as I have heard heartache. Where I have seen struggle, I have seen great strength. And in a state as broad and diverse in background and belief as any in our nation, I have found a spirit of unity and purpose that can steer us through the most troubled waters.

It was long ago that another son of Illinois left for Washington. A greater man who spoke to a nation far more divided, Abraham Lincoln, said of his home, "To this place, and the kindness of these people, I owe everything." Today, I feel the same, and like Lincoln, I ask for your support, your prayers, and for us to "confidently hope that all will yet be well."

With your help, along with the service and sacrifice of Americans across the nation who are hungry for change and ready to bring it about, I have faith that all will in fact be well. And it is with that faith, and the high hopes I have for the enduring power of the American idea, that I offer the people of my beloved home a very affectionate thanks.

President-Elect Barack Obama's House

The White House at night

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEnXZ6LFk4o
Song: "Barack's House" - VideoLink above is a parody of the Commodores tune "Brick House".


The White House Entrance Hall


http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid353515028?bctid=1349141721
Above link is a Christmas Card from the President-Elect First Family

White House East Room

Is it sinking in yet?

President-Elect Barack Obama and President GW Bush

President-Elect Barack Obama and President GW Bush (ap photo)

President Barack Obama

First Family (ap photo)

President Barack Obama

Sen. Barack Obama's "Get Out to Vote" Message

Democratic Presidential Nominee Illinois Sen. Barack Obama

Senator Obama's video message urging you to vote: http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/nov4

Below is a letter from Senator Barack Obama:

Kirk --

We're just one day away from change.

Election Day is tomorrow -- Tuesday, November 4th.

We've asked you to do a lot over the course of this campaign, and you've always come through.

Right now, I'm asking you to do one last thing -- vote tomorrow, and make sure everyone you know votes, too.

Watch a short video about how far we've come, and how close we are. Then find or confirm your polling location and make sure your friends and family do the same: http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/nov4

When this campaign began, we weren't given much of a chance by the pollsters or the pundits.

But tomorrow, we can make history.

We've made it this far because supporters like you never stopped believing in your power to bring about real change.

Take the final step now.

Watch the video, find your polling location, and get everyone you know involved on Election Day: http://my.barackobama.com/nov4

With your vote, and the votes of your friends, family, and neighbors, we won't just win this election -- together, we will change this country and change the world.

Thank you,

Barack

Senator Barack Obama 30-minute special

Senator Barack Obama (AP photo)

Watch Senator Barack Obama's 30-minute TV special: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtREqAmLsoA

The Obama campaign has been a pioneering campaign. Over 5-million internet contributors, daily text/email messaging, face book and my space pages, youtube accounts, automated monthly contributor billing, acceptance speech in front of 80-thousand people, grassroots mastery, and ultimately defeating supposedly "un-beatable" Democratic favorite Senator Hillary (and Bill) Clinton, and working on the Republicans. Now a 30-minute paid special airing on seven networks -- CBS, NBC, Univision, BET, TVOne, MSNBC, and surprisingly even Fox News Network. CNN News network declined to run Senator Obama's special, and talks between ABC-TV and the Obama campaign fell apart. It CNN and ABC would have ran Obama's program, then nine television networks would have aired it. Unprecedented.

"We were approached by the Obama campaign and declined their request," said Sal Petruzzi, senior vice president for public relations of Turner Broadcasting, CNN's parent company. "We did not want to pre-empt our programming lineup with a 30-minute spot. We would rather use our air to continue to cover the campaign, candidates and issues like we always do from all points of view with the best political team on television." Yeah right Sal. Look closely to Sal's statement. Sal called Obama's program a "spot". "Spot" means a commercial in broadcast lingo. Sal couldn't even respect the Obama special as a program.

Furthermore CNN just hired """Comedian""" D.L. Hughley quickly and conveniently right before the November fourth election to do a weekly hour long Political show. I guess CNN needed someone to give the Black political point of view. And out of all the Black Talk show hosts in the world to interview, CNN felt that D.L. Hughley was absolutely the best political choice. Yes to D.L. Hughley's show, no to Senator Obama's program.

A CNN Fact: No African-American broadcast journalist have had their own "named" daily show on CNN to date -- not even overnights. Examples of a "named" show would be: The Anderson Cooper show, The Lou Dobbs show, The Larry King show, Campbell Brown show, etc...

An ABC spokeswoman declined to comment about ABC network's talks with the Obama campaign. "As a matter of policy we don't comment about clients with whom we are doing business," said Julie Hoover of ABC. The Obama campaign has bought advertising on ABC in the past, she said, "but they did not buy the half hour." Obama taped an interview with ABC's Charles Gibson, which is ran Thursday 10-30-08, the day after Obama's 30-minute TV special.

The Obama 30-minute special was a success. The program was viewed by 33.6 million people with an average of 21.7 percent of total U.S. television viewers watching Senator Obama's Television program http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/media_entertainment/217-of-households-in-top-local-tv-markets-watched-obama-infomercial/. Baltimore and Philadelphia lead the pack with 31.3 percent and 29 percent of thier TV viewers witnessing the Obama special respectively. Washington DC was 7th in the nation with 26.8 percent of their viewers watching Obama's special, and New York was 8th with 26.2 percent of their TV viewers checking it out http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/ranking.pdf

Riot Police on alert for Election Night!

Article from the Associated Press

October 31, 2008

Chicago, other cities readying for election night

by Michael Tarm

Chicago authorities are bracing for as many as a million people in downtown Grant Park Tuesday night to cheer on Barack Obama as election returns come in, a potential celebration and security headache.

Police in Chicago and elsewhere around the country say intense interest in the election and the possibility of large crowds in major cities are leading them to take crowd-control precautions usually seen during Super Bowls and World Series. In addition, local police will be providing security at polling stations to keep things running smoothly on Election Day.

Security preparations in Obama's hometown include orders for off-duty firefighters to haul their helmets, breathing tanks and other gear home now until after the election in case of any emergency. All Chicago officers have also had their days off canceled and are required to work Tuesday, Chicago Police Supt. Jody Weis said.

"I'm extraordinarily confident that we can keep Senator Obama safe, that we can keep the citizens of Chicago safe and that we can keep the neighborhoods safe." He added later that, "We always prepare for the worst and hope for the best."

Other parts of the country are thinking through security as well.

In Los Angeles, police typically deploy extra squad cars at polling places on Election Day and Tuesday will be no different, said Michael Downing, the Los Angeles Police Department's deputy chief. But he added that nothing suggests "people are going to riot or conduct themselves inappropriately depending on who gets in."

In Detroit, most of the city's 3,000 or so officers will be working Election Day, said police spokesman James Tate. "That's any presidential election," he said.

Asked if preparations are more intense than in previous years because of the heightened emotions surrounding this election, Steve Martin, chief sheriff's deputy in Franklin County, Ohio, said, "I think we take all of those into consideration."

A permit application for the Chicago event said 65,000 spectators would likely show up, but many more without tickets are expected to arrive for what Obama backers hope will be a celebration of the first black American elected to the presidency. John McCain is planning a smaller election-night party in his hometown of Phoenix, Ariz.

The huge Chicago crowd, unhappy or not, could pose usual hazards. Police have imposed sweeping street closures and parking bans that will effectively shut down the city center late Tuesday.

Mayor Richard Daley told reporters early that he would have preferred the rally at a stadium, where crowd control would be easier. But he said with a laugh, "Could you see me saying 'no' to Senator Obama? Give me a break. I'm not that dumb."

Some church leaders, including the Rev. Albert Tyson, encouraged people to stay away from the event if they don't have a ticket. Faith leaders around the city, like Tyson, are hosting neighborhood viewing parties.

"One of the things that Chicago is known for, besides broad shoulders, is commonsense," he said. "Common sense says if you don't have a ticket, don't show up at the affair."

Daley estimated the cost to the city of helping to stage the event — including adding more police and extra transit trains — at around $2 million, and the Obama campaign has said it will pay all those costs.

The importance of Election Day security was driven home by the recent arrest of two white supremacists accused of plotting to kill Obama and dozens of other blacks, said Hilary Shelton, the director of the NAACP's Washington, D.C. bureau.

"We've unfortunately seen there's a few fringe people who want to create havoc, so it makes sense to have extra security," he said. "The flip side's that is that any heavy-handed presence of law enforcement at polls could be intimidating."

He added that anyone who might suggest Obama supporters in black communities might react violently if their candidate loses in a vote that is initially too close to call — a la the 2000 presidential race — may reveal their own racial biases. "It does raise some racial insensitivity concerns," he said.

Downing, who heads the Los Angeles department's counterterrorism bureau, put more emphasis on threats of a terrorist attack. "When you look around the world ... you see al-Qaida and other terrorist organizations want to sway an election," said Downing. "We've hardened iconic targets with technology and people."

Highest Voter Turnout EVER is expected!

Article from the Associated Press

October 31, 2008

Voter turnout expected to be highest in decades

by Seth Borenstein

Voter turnout will be the highest in decades, dwarfing recent presidential elections, experts predict. The only question dividing experts is how huge will it be. Will it be the largest since 1968, largest since 1960 or even, as one expert predicts, the largest in a century? Soaring early voting levels hint at a big turnout, but that could just be the same voters casting ballots earlier instead of more voters hitting the polls. Weather should generally be favorable, according to forecasts.

What early voting numbers mean and how much of the youth and Hispanic votes turn out are the big factors political scientists look at when trying to predict how many eligible Americans will vote.

Michael McDonald of George Mason University is so optimistic he's predicting the highest level in a century. "We're going to definitely beat the turnout rate in 2004, the question is by how much," McDonald said. "We have a chance to beat the 1960 turnout rate."

"It's not just an election of a generation, it's an election of generations with an 's'," McDonald said Friday.

He's not alone. The dean of voting turnout predictions, Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate at American University, this week amped up his turnout forecast. Initially he said it would be around 2004 levels, but now he is looking at a turnout that would be the highest since 1960.

"It's driven by 90 percent of the American people thinking the country is on the wrong track," Gans said Friday. "The only question is how many Republicans are not going to show up."
MIT political scientist Adam Berinsky predicted the highest levels since 1968, which he said is still quite impressive given that the polls show this election is not that close and fewer people tend to vote when the race isn't tight.

The McCain campaign released a strategy memo earlier this week, saying "turnout is going to go through the roof," and predicted that more than 130 million people would vote. And Obama campaign manager David Plouffe on Friday said, "we think turnout is going to be higher than that" but wouldn't give a number. Four years ago, 122.3 million people voted for president.
Calculating turnout rates isn't uniform. McDonald bases his turnout calculations on eligible voters, not just those over 18 and he subtracts felons and foreigners and others. Other people have different calculations for eligible voters; some experts just use the percent of the voting age population, regardless of eligibility.

McDonald predicts 64 percent of the eligible voters will cast ballots. That's more than 2004's 60.1 percent and a hair above 1960's post World War II high of 63.8 percent. The high for the 20th Century, using McDonald's calculations, was 65.7 percent in 1908 when William Howard Taft defeated William Jennings Bryan.

Record heavy early voting — people lining up to vote early in Florida and elsewhere, Georgia getting more than twice the early votes it did in 2004 — is one key factor, McDonald said. Democrats are voting in person earlier than Republicans, he said.

Gans isn't swayed by the number of early voters, but their enthusiasm and willingness to brave long lines to vote early "indicates a very high motivation." And that along with increased voter registration made him up his forecast.

Other factors pushing forecasts up include high voting in the primaries, record donations by small contributors, and general interest in the race, McDonald said. Dan Schnur, head of the University of Southern California's Institute of Politics, points to record television ratings for nominating conventions that offered no suspense.

Indications are that turnout by African-Americans will increase by about 20 percent, said MIT and Harvard political science professor Stephen Ansolabehere.

The only bad weather forecast is rain in the Pacific Northwest and along a small stretch of Southeast coast; McDonald didn't think that would matter much.

The only dampening factors are the youth vote, which hasn't shown much in early voting, and as the race looks less close, some people may stay home, experts said.